Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 994.563390 1137.072800 1300.030545 1501.754841 1746.981245 2038.315415 2.414999e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 799.592617 982.670721 1213.773505 1533.238852 1973.870124 2576.859733 3.495700e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 709.159127 911.939752 1184.656859 1590.565096 2202.400080 3132.507697 4.748032e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 636.450737 847.291876 1145.145119 1615.499689 2378.731450 3649.876237 6.140277e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 572.199143 782.556869 1091.460212 1603.137061 2485.941546 4076.858635 7.554900e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 531.600041 745.475082 1071.183726 1636.031799 2671.373791 4693.781362 9.668833e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 479.660951 684.576401 1004.791596 1578.807926 2679.046699 4964.344979 1.114215e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 438.065370 635.050392 950.051572 1531.939195 2694.314713 5253.584788 1.284913e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 401.587610 589.986591 897.286926 1479.990723 2687.385490 5490.192550 1.457610e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 389.763016 583.504536 908.553544 1548.625140 2948.317106 6468.796608 1.960672e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 374.439936 569.566121 904.897448 1587.161076 3152.035269 7387.875880 2.551956e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 357.891186 551.953777 892.513971 1605.733041 3313.530103 8262.958231 3.252435e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 335.947537 524.132098 860.255231 1581.749230 3375.105936 8899.267436 3.968460e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 322.908893 511.061044 854.607313 1615.368886 3599.487192 10226.719495 5.455028e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 314.175548 504.791760 861.050192 1676.828407 3919.895257 12137.307723 8.115221e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 302.458017 492.003288 853.139070 1703.567264 4149.880702 13877.495250 1.159749e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 287.887095 472.734252 830.152675 1690.308065 4254.372488 15155.075103 1.547726e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 279.010103 463.525445 826.902998 1725.594408 4529.461281 17551.651965 2.410030e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 262.471576 438.465195 788.099876 1664.220541 4459.123784 18028.953807 2.917470e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 248.191806 416.929934 755.127678 1613.990080 4417.229203 18676.533645 3.638253e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 234.555995 395.879346 721.639046 1558.355634 4343.378207 19098.300024 4.429931e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 231.956865 396.388124 735.074594 1631.868953 4780.608287 23488.470860 9.634249e+05
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 226.980125 391.783564 736.731735 1673.176382 5111.535186 27701.614063 2.136244e+06